POLITICO article 5/19/16 The Republican nominee for president is on track to win 306 electoral votes in November, according to a new analysis from the University of Michigan’s Institute for Public Policy Research.
The results, released on Monday, show that Trump could win more than 270 electoral votes with a combination of states where he has a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the 2012 election and a small number of states that have been leaning Democratic in recent years.
“Trump has a relatively high probability of winning 306 electoral college votes,” said Dan Schwerin, the institute’s director of election studies.
“It is a reasonable expectation based on the current state of the race and the relative strength of the Democratic and Republican candidates.”
Trump has an 84 percent chance of winning the electoral college, the lowest chance ever to win the White House with less than 50 percent of the popular vote, according the analysis.
Trump, who has made infrastructure a centerpiece of his campaign, has vowed to fix roads, bridges and other major infrastructure needs, even though he is far behind in the polls.
He has called for an infrastructure plan to be announced by Labor Day and to take effect by the end of March.
The institute’s analysis assumes that Trump will be the winner of all of the Electoral College states and that he will get a majority of the remaining Electoral College votes.
That’s a scenario that many analysts expect him to win, because his chances of winning every other state increase.
In addition to winning 270 electoral college and a majority in the Electoral Colleges, Trump has a slight edge in the popular-vote count, according it.
That advantage would be enough to overcome a loss in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, which could be key to a victory in Michigan.
The Institute for Social Research has said that Trump’s win in Wisconsin would put him at 269 electoral college.
In the Electoral college, Trump would have a two-seat advantage over Vice President Mike Pence, who is favored to win.
The institute projects that the popular votes of each state will equal the combined electoral votes of the candidates.